Assessing the existing guidelines of environmental impact assessment and mitigation measures for future hydropower projects in Pakistan

Introduction: More than 16% of the total electricity used worldwide is met by hydropower, having local to regional environmental consequences. With positive indicators that energy is becoming more broadly available and sustainable, the world is moving closer to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). Pakistan became the first nation to include the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in its national development strategy.Methodology: The current study sought to investigate the structural limits of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) guidelines for hydropower development in Pakistan. The study included the document review of the EIA reports about hydropower projects in Pakistan, scientific questionnaires from decision-makers, and public consultation.Results and Discussion: The document evaluates that an adequate mechanism is available, and donors like the Asian Development Bank and World Bank observe the implementation process of EIA in Pakistan. However, a comprehensive analysis of the EIA system found several things that could be improved, not only in the institutional framework but also in actual implementation and practices. More than 20% of respondent decision-makers disagreed with the compliance of the current Institutional Framework with EIA guidelines, and 25% think that the existing guidelines followed in Pakistan are not aligned with international standards and practices for Hydropower in actual practice. EIA has a limited impact on decision-making due to insufficient technical and financial resources.Recommendations: There should be a think tank with experts who can meet the needs of present and future epochs. The public should be communicated with and educated about EIA. For better efficiency, the officers and decision-makers should be trained internationally, i.e., the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)

Assessing the effectiveness of national park’s policies and laws in promoting biodiversity conservation and ecological development in Pakistan

Ecological history is crucial in ecosystem restoration, serving as a tool to identify and characterize suitable restoration targets. Pakistan has implemented laws and policies to enhance forest sustainability and preserve biodiversity, as it is becoming a global strategy for future water planning and management. This study seeks to analyze the impact of national park policies and laws on various factors, including biodiversity conservation, ecological processes preservation, water resource protection, consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, research and education, and the promotion of recreation and tourism. To assess the effectiveness of established policies in 19 National Parks in Pakistan, a mixed-mode research design was utilized, combining both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Data was collected from 300 participants through a close-ended questionnaire employing a Likert scale. Analysis of the collected data was conducted using the software Smart Partial Least Squares method. The findings demonstrate that the existing policies and laws have contributed to the preservation of forest sustainability in Pakistan. The policies related to recreation and tourism; consumptive benefits; and research are more effective respectively compared to other sets of regulations. The laws and policies related to preservation of ecological processes are least effective. The study suggests that laws related to national parks need to be revised to preserve biodiversity and ecological processes. The preservation of water resources should be a major concern, and the consumptive benefits of these parks should be rechecked. Awareness campaigns are to be part of the expansionary policy framework, and while tourism opportunities should be created, a check on natural resource misuse should be implemented. The non-consumptive benefits of these parks should also be assessed. Due to its potential limitations, such as limited stakeholder analysis, difficulty in creating legitimacy in national parks due to bureaucratic structures, lack of community sensitization, and long-term trends in sustainable conservation strategies, there are certain future research directions that can address challenges in studying the impact of policies on national park habitats. There is a pressing demand for a more dynamic approach to ecological policymaking. Continuous evaluation and adaptation of policies will be essential in creating an environment conducive to sustainable development

GRADUAL CHANGES IN SNOW PEAKS IN UPPER INDUS BASIN, PAKISTAN: A GOOGLE EARTH BASED REVIEW

The hydrology and climate of mid to high-latitude mountainous areas are significantly impacted by snow cover. Since adding or removing snow cover significantly impacts the snowpack’s capacity to operate as a reservoir for water storage, the snowfall-dominated basins of mid- to higher latitudes are anticipated to see the largest shifts in the hydrological cycle because of global warming. By moving the time slider in the historical imagery feature of Google Earth Pro, the Upper Indus Basin study area was examined from the years 1984 to 2020 to track changes in the snow cover. All observations were made with longitude and latitude at 35o, 34', 51.79" N and 74o, 34', 24.21" E, and the eye altitude at 344.46 miles. Google Earth captured pictures of all the observations on December 31st of every year. The data from 1984 to 2020 was examined keenly, and it was observed that as time goes on, global warming is showing its effects and producing climate changes, which has a negative impact on the region's snow and glacier availability. The Landsat images make it abundantly evident that the lower areas of the upper Indus Basin's snow cover are more negatively impacted than the downstream side areas due to the variation in altitude. The authors also referred to the research work by other researchers in the study to compare with their work. The study observed that some areas were utterly showing no snow in 2020 as compared to 1984 as time moved on with an increase in global warming in 36 years

Three-Dimensional Glacier Changes in Geladandong Peak Region in the Central Tibetan Plateau

In this study, contour lines from the topographic maps at a 1:100,000 scale (mapped in 1968), Landsat MSS/TM/OLI images, ASTER images and SPOT 6-7 stereo image pairs were used to study changes in glacier length, area and surface elevation. We summarized the results using the following three conclusions: (1) During the period from 1973 to 2013, glaciers retreated by 412 ± 32 m at a mean retraction rate of 10.3 ± 0.8 m·year−1 and the relative retreat was 5.6 ± 0.4%. The glacier area shrank by 7.5 ± 3.4%, which was larger than the glacier length. In the periods of 1968⁻2000, 2000⁻2005 and 2000⁻2013, the glacier surface elevation change rates were −7.7 ± 1.4 m (−0.24 ± 0.04 m·year−1), −1.9 ± 1.5 m (−0.38 ± 0.25 m·year−1) and −5.0 ± 1.4 m (−0.38 ± 0.11 m·year−1), respectively. The changes in the glacier area and thickness exhibited similar trends, both showing a significant increasing reduction after 2000. (2) Eleven glaciers were identified as surging glaciers. Changes of the mass balance in surging glaciers were stronger than in non-surging glaciers between 1968 and 2013. Changes of area in surging glaciers were weaker than in non-surging glaciers. (3) Increasing temperature was the major cause of glacier thickness reduction and area shrinkage. The increase in precipitation, to a certain extent, inhibited glacial ablation but it did not change the status of the shrinkage in the glacial area and the reduction in the glacier thickness

Glacial Lake Inventory Derived from Landsat 8 OLI in 2016–2018 in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key hub for trade, is susceptible to glacial lake outburst floods. The distributions and types of glacial lakes in the CPEC are not well documented. In this study, cloud-free imagery acquired using the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager during 2016–2018 was used to delineate the extent of glacial lakes in the mountainous terrain of the CPEC. In the study domain, 1341 glacial lakes (size ≥ 0.01 km2) with a total area of 109.76 ± 9.82 km2 were delineated through the normalized difference water index threshold method, slope analysis, and a manual rectification process. On the basis of the formation mechanisms and characteristics of glacial lakes, four major classes and eight subclasses of lakes were identified. In all, 492 blocked lakes (162 end moraine-dammed lakes, 17 lateral moraine-dammed lakes, 312 other moraine-dammed lakes, and 1 ice-blocked lake), 723 erosion lakes (123 cirque lakes and 600 other erosion lakes), 86 supraglacial lakes, and 40 other glacial lakes were identified. All lakes were distributed between 2220 and 5119 m a.s.l. At higher latitudes, the predominate lake type changed from moraine-related to erosion. From among the Gez, Taxkorgan, Hunza, Gilgit, and Indus basins, most glacial lakes were located in the Indus Basin. The number and area of glacial lakes were larger on the southern slopes of the Karakoram range

Water, Energy, and Food Nexus in Pakistan: Parametric and Non-Parametric Analysis

Analyzing the efficiency of the water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus is critical for effective governance strategies. Therefore, three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to measure the efficiency level of WEF in the 36 districts of Punjab, Pakistan, for the period from 2015 to 2021. Furthermore, the stochastic frontier was used to analyze the effect of external environmental factors on these efficiency scores of the WEF nexus. The results of the DEA showed that the number of frontier efficiency districts decreased, and most districts experienced rank change over time. Overall, the performance of 50% of the districts declined over time. The relative decline in efficiency was found to be higher in districts Bahwalnaghar and Rahim Yar Khan. The performance of districts Multan and Sheikhupura increased over time, while districts Vehari and Sargodha were the most complete and efficient in actual performance. According to the SFA’s findings, the WEF nexus efficiency of South Punjab districts was negatively impacted by external environmental factors (urbanization rate, manufactured industry output, population), leading to severe stress across WEF sectors. Districts in central and southern Punjab, however, were more likely to have lower rankings because of the positive impact of external environmental factors on the efficiency of the WEF nexus. The substantial rise of external environmental variables focused on scale expansion rather than quality improvement, which created a wide gap in WEF inputs and, hence, reduced the efficiency of the WEF nexus in the districts. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for developing governance strategies based on external environmental factors and WEF resource endowment, and they complement the efficiency calculation of WEF nexus research. Future research should focus on the Baluchistan region, the most deprived area in terms of water, energy, and food

Water, Energy, and Food Nexus in Pakistan: Parametric and Non-Parametric Analysis

Analyzing the efficiency of the water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus is critical for effective governance strategies. Therefore, three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to measure the efficiency level of WEF in the 36 districts of Punjab, Pakistan, for the period from 2015 to 2021. Furthermore, the stochastic frontier was used to analyze the effect of external environmental factors on these efficiency scores of the WEF nexus. The results of the DEA showed that the number of frontier efficiency districts decreased, and most districts experienced rank change over time. Overall, the performance of 50% of the districts declined over time. The relative decline in efficiency was found to be higher in districts Bahwalnaghar and Rahim Yar Khan. The performance of districts Multan and Sheikhupura increased over time, while districts Vehari and Sargodha were the most complete and efficient in actual performance. According to the SFA’s findings, the WEF nexus efficiency of South Punjab districts was negatively impacted by external environmental factors (urbanization rate, manufactured industry output, population), leading to severe stress across WEF sectors. Districts in central and southern Punjab, however, were more likely to have lower rankings because of the positive impact of external environmental factors on the efficiency of the WEF nexus. The substantial rise of external environmental variables focused on scale expansion rather than quality improvement, which created a wide gap in WEF inputs and, hence, reduced the efficiency of the WEF nexus in the districts. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for developing governance strategies based on external environmental factors and WEF resource endowment, and they complement the efficiency calculation of WEF nexus research. Future research should focus on the Baluchistan region, the most deprived area in terms of water, energy, and food

Climate-driven acceleration of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales during 1961–2016

During the past decades, glacier mass loss is becoming increasingly significant worldwide but knowledge about the acceleration is still limited despite its potentially profound impacts on sea level rise, water resources availability and glacial hazards. In this study, we analyzed the acceleration of glacier mass loss based on in-situ measurements and on the latest compilation dataset of direct and geodetic observations for the period 1961–2016. The results showed that the rate of glacier mass loss has increased worldwide during the past decades. At the global scale, the rate of glacier mass loss has been accelerating at 5.76±1.35 Gt a−2 as well as 0.0074±0.0016 m w.e.a−2 on mass balance (refer to the area-averaged mass change value) during the whole period. At regional scales, for mass change rate, the heavily glacierized regions excluding Antarctic and Subantarctic exhibited a larger acceleration compared to other regions. The highest acceleration of mass change was found in Alaska glaciers (1.33±0.47 Gt a−2) over the full period. As for mass balance, high acceleration occurred on the regions with small glaciers as well as on the heavily glacierized regions. Central Europe exhibited the highest acceleration (0.024±0.0088 m w.e.a−2) during 1961–2016. High level of consistency between the acceleration and temperature implies that climate warming had a significant effect on the accelerating of glacier mass loss. Moreover, acceleration of the contribution from the Greenland ice sheet (0.028 to 0.070 mm a−2) and Antarctic ice sheet (0.023 to 0.058 mm a−2) to sea level rise exceeds acceleration of the contribution from global glaciers (0.019±0.013 mm a−2). These results will improve our understanding of the glacier retreat in response to climate change and provide critical information for improving mitigation strategies for impacts that may be caused by glacier melting

Spatial Heterogeneity in Glacier Mass-Balance Sensitivity across High Mountain Asia

Mass balance of glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA) varies substantially across the region. While the spatial variability is attributed to differences in climatic setting and sensitivity of these glaciers to climate change, an assessment of these factors to date has only been performed on a small sample of glaciers and a small set of climate perturbation scenarios. To advance the assessment to larger datasets, we first reconstruct the time series of reference-surface mass balance for 1952–2014 periods using an empirical model calibrated with observed mass balance from 45 glaciers across the HMA. Forcing the model with a set of independent stepwise changes of temperature (±0.5 K to ±6 K) and precipitation (±5% to ±30%), we assess the reference-surface mass balance sensitivity of each glacier in the sample. While the relationship between the change in mass balance and the change in precipitation is linear, the relationship with the change in temperature is non-linear. Spatial heterogeneity in the simulated mass balance sensitivities is attributed to differences in climatic setting, elevation, and the sensitivity of mass-balance profile (gradient) to changes in temperature and precipitation. While maritime and low-lying continental glaciers show high sensitivity to temperature changes and display a uniform mass-balance sensitivity with elevation, the high-lying continental glaciers show high sensitivity to precipitation changes and display a non-uniform mass-balance sensitivity with elevation. Our analysis reveals the dominant drivers of spatial variability in the mass balance sensitivity across the region: temperature as a single driver for maritime glaciers, and a superposition of temperature, precipitation seasonality, and snow/rain differentiation for continental glaciers. Finally, a set of sensitivity tests with perturbed model parameters confirms the robustness of our results. The model’s ability and robustness to resolve spatial patterns in the sensitivities and their drivers implies that simple modeling approaches remain a powerful tool for analyzing glacier response to climate change in HMA.Science, Faculty ofNon UBCEarth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Department ofReviewedFacult